利弗莫尔股票买入法 (Livermore’s Stock Buying Method)
Summary
- Jesse Livermore’s buying method is built on pivotal points, probing entries, and confirmation before committing full size. Never chase; let the stock prove itself first.
Key Points
核心思想 (Core Idea)
- Buy on strength, not weakness. A stock that moves up after your first buy is proving it wants to go higher.
- Never average down — adding to a losing position is fighting the market’s verdict.
- Wait for the line of least resistance to be established before committing full capital.
关键价位 Pivotal Points
- A pivotal point is a price level where the stock has repeatedly paused, reversed, or consolidated — a natural decision zone.
- A breakout above a pivotal point on increasing volume signals the line of least resistance has shifted upward.
- Do not buy before the breakout. Anticipating costs money; confirmation costs less.
三步买入法 Three-Step Entry
Livermore never bought a full position at once. He split entries to let the market confirm direction:
| Step | Action | Condition |
|---|---|---|
| 1. 试探买入 (Probe) | Buy ¹⁄₅ of intended position | Stock breaks pivotal point on volume |
| 2. 确认加仓 (Confirm) | Add ²⁄₅ more | Stock advances further, confirming strength |
| 3. 满仓 (Full Size) | Add remaining ²⁄₅ | Stock continues — trend is confirmed |
If the stock fails to advance after the probe buy, do not add. The market is telling you something.
止损与纪律 Stop Loss & Discipline
- Set a mental stop at the pivotal point you broke out from. If price falls back below it, the breakout has failed — exit.
- A small loss taken early is far cheaper than a large loss taken late.
- Never let a profit turn into a loss; once a position is meaningfully up, raise your stop.
时机 Timing
- Livermore paid as much attention to when to buy as what to buy.
- Avoid buying into a choppy, directionless market — wait for a clear trend to emerge.
- The best buys come after a proper base or consolidation period, not extended rallies.
Examples
- Stock consolidates near 50 on heavy volume → probe buy at 53 → add. Stock holds and moves to $56 → fill full position.
- Stock breaks pivotal point but immediately reverses below it → probe buy stops out. No further action. Loss is small.
Related
- Investment/Stock/index