Victoria Rental
Scope
This note tracks the Victoria CMA purpose-built rental apartment vacancy rate as the primary leading indicator for rent trend.
Why Vacancy Rate Matters
Vacancy rate typically leads rent trend by about 6–12 months:
| Vacancy signal | Likely rent direction |
|---|---|
| Falling vacancy | Rents tend to rise |
| Rising vacancy | Rent growth tends to flatten or decline |
For comparison
| Vacancy | Market condition |
|---|---|
| <1% | Crisis level shortage |
| 1–2% | Landlord market |
| 2–3% | Balanced |
| >3% | Renter market |
Victoria Vacancy Rate History Trend (Recent)
| Year | Vacancy rate | Trend read |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2.2% | Balanced-to-tight |
| 2021 | 1.0% | Very tight (strong upward rent pressure) |
| 2022 | 1.5% | Still tight |
| 2023 | 1.6% | Tight but slightly easing |
| 2024 | 2.6% | Easing market |
| 2025 | 3.3% | Renter market signal by the >3% rule |
Practical Takeaways
- Victoria shifted from an extremely tight market (2021–2023) toward a looser market (2024–2025).
- With vacancy rising to 3.3% in 2025, rent pressure should be weaker than in the 2021–2023 phase.
- By the comparison rule above, Victoria is now in a renter market band (>3%).
Data Sources (Official / Primary)
- CMHC Rental Market Report data hub: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/rental-market-reports-major-centres
- CMHC Rental Market Report 2022 (Victoria 2021=1.0%, 2020=2.2%): https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/-/media/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/rental-market-report/rental-market-report-2022-en.ashx
- CMHC Rental Market Report 2023 (Victoria 2022=1.5%): https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/rental-market-report/rental-market-report-2023-en.pdf
- CMHC Rental Market Report 2024 (Victoria 2023=1.6%): https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/rental-market-report/rental-market-report-2024-en.pdf
- CMHC Rental Market Report Fall 2024 (Victoria 2024=2.6%): https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/rental-market-report/fall-2024/rental-market-report-fall-2024-en.pdf
- BC Gov news release citing CMHC 2025 (Victoria 2025=3.3%): https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2025HMA0121-001265
Optional Companion Indicators
Use together with vacancy rate for higher confidence:
- Net new rental completions (CMHC)
- Population / migration flow (BC Stats, Statistics Canada)
- Employment and student inflow trends (municipal / provincial sources)