Based on the March 25–30, 2026 policy announcements, I would expect Ontario home prices to be supported, but not broadly surge right away. The new measures are meaningful for new construction: Ontario and Ottawa are offering a temporary full 13% HST removal on many eligible new homes, and the federal–provincial deal also aims to cut municipal development charges by up to 50% in much of the province. Governments say this could lower the all-in cost of some new homes by up to $200,000 and add about 8,000 housing starts next year.
But the bigger backdrop is still weak. CMHC’s 2026 outlook says Ontario is the main province where prices are still expected to fall in 2026, especially in the most expensive urban centres, because inventory is high and sales are muted. CMHC also says Ontario housing starts are projected to fall to near two-decade lows in 2026, largely because Toronto condo pre-construction sales were extremely weak, with many projects delayed or cancelled.
So the most likely path is this:
1. New-home prices may firm up first.
The tax cuts and lower development charges improve project economics and buyer affordability for eligible new homes. That should help builders move stalled projects and may stabilize pricing in the new-build segment faster than in resale. But that does not automatically mean all savings become lower sticker prices; in practice, some savings may go to restoring builder margins or making projects viable enough to launch at all. The policy is best understood as a floor under new construction, not a guarantee of cheap homes.
2. Resale prices in the GTA are still likely to stay soft in the near term.
TRREB’s 2026 outlook expected GTA prices to be roughly stable overall, with an average price forecast range of about 1.03M, while elevated inventory was expected to restrain stronger gains. Reuters also reported in February that Toronto home sales and prices had been weakening amid economic uncertainty, with the board expecting elevated inventory to keep price growth restrained through 2026.
3. Condos remain the weakest part of Ontario.
The policy package helps, but it probably does not fully solve the condo problem. CMHC says Ontario’s weakness is concentrated in expensive urban markets and that Toronto condo starts are especially weak because pre-construction sales collapsed. That usually means condo prices may stabilize later than detached and townhouse segments.
4. Lower rates are no longer a big rescue lever.
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on March 18, 2026 and said growth risks are tilted down because of global uncertainty, while inflation risks have risen because of energy shocks. That means Ontario housing is no longer likely to get a strong extra push from rapid rate cuts. Borrowing conditions are much better than before, but they are not getting dramatically easier right now.
My practical read for Ontario over the next 12–18 months is:
- GTA / expensive Ontario markets: likely flat to slightly down in 2026, then better odds of recovery in 2027 if inventory normalizes and confidence improves.
- New-build homes: likely to see the biggest benefit first from these announcements, especially where projects were on the edge of not proceeding.
- Ottawa / less overheated Ontario markets: likely more resilient, with softer declines or near-stable pricing rather than a major drop. Ottawa data already points to a more balanced market than Toronto.
So, in one sentence: this news improves the medium-term outlook for Ontario housing construction and should help put a floor under prices, but it probably won’t trigger a province-wide price boom in 2026; the more realistic outcome is stabilization first, then a gradual recovery led by selected segments and regions in 2027.
For recent coverage around this policy shift, here are a few useful sources:
[
Global News
Federal government, Ontario sign $8.8B deal to reduce …
Yesterday
[
Reuters
Toronto home sales fall the most in 11 months as economic uncertainty weighs
Feb 4, 2026
I can also break this down specifically for Toronto vs Ottawa vs Hamilton vs Kitchener/Waterloo, which would be more useful than treating all of Ontario as one market.
I don’t understand, if lower 13% new house tax and development charge, there will be more supply for new development, and the house market price will drop, isn’t it?
Your logic is very reasonable, and in a simple textbook economy, you’d be right:
👉 Lower cost → more supply → prices go down
But real estate (especially Ontario right now) is not a normal supply curve situation. The key is this:
These policies are not really increasing supply quickly — they are preventing supply from collapsing.
Let me explain step by step.
🧠 1. The key misunderstanding: supply is NOT increasing (yet)
Right now in Ontario (especially Toronto):
- Many condo projects are cancelled or paused
- Developers are not building, even before this policy
- Why? Because:
- Construction cost ↑
- Interest rates ↑
- Buyers ↓ (pre-sale very weak)
👉 So actual situation is:
Without policy:
Supply is shrinking
Now government comes in:
- Remove 13% HST
- Cut development charges
👉 What happens?
Supply goes from “shrinking a lot”
→ to “shrinking less” or “maybe stable”
❗ That is NOT the same as “more supply”
🏗️ 2. Developers don’t pass savings directly to buyers
You might think:
“If cost drops 100K”
But in reality:
Developers think like this:
Before policy:
Project = losing money → don’t build
After policy:
Project = barely profitable → OK build
👉 So the savings are used to:
- Make project viable
- Reduce risk
- Improve margin
NOT necessarily:
- Lower selling price
⏳ 3. Even if supply increases, it’s VERY slow
Real estate has huge lag:
- Land → approval → pre-sale → construction → completion
- Timeline: 3–5 years
👉 So even if policy works:
- 2026 policy
→ maybe 2027–2029 supply
NOT immediate price drop
📊 4. Demand side is also changing
At the same time:
- Interest rates stabilized (not super high anymore)
- Immigration still strong
- Rent is high → pushes buyers
👉 Demand is not weak enough to crash prices
🏙️ 5. Existing homes ≠ new homes
Very important point:
These policies mainly affect:
👉 NEW construction
But market price you see (MLS):
👉 mostly RESALE homes
So:
- New homes cheaper → maybe slight pressure
- But resale market depends on:
- inventory
- sentiment
- interest rates
👉 That’s why impact is indirect
⚖️ 6. What actually happens in real markets
Instead of:
❌ “More supply → price drop”
What we get is:
✔️ “Less shortage → price stops rising or stabilizes”
🧾 Simple analogy (this is the key idea)
Think of Ontario housing like this:
- Demand = 100 units
- Supply = 60 units (shortage = 40)
Without policy:
- Supply drops to 50 → shortage = 50 → prices ↑
With policy:
- Supply stays at 60 → shortage = 40 → prices stable
👉 Prices didn’t drop
👉 They just stopped getting worse
📌 Final answer (very important)
Your idea is correct in theory, but in Ontario right now:
👉 The policy is NOT creating oversupply
👉 It is preventing undersupply from getting worse
So the real outcome is:
- ❌ Not price crash
- ❌ Not big drop
- ✅ More likely: price stabilization first
- ✅ Then slow recovery later
🧠 My quick “realtor-level” summary for you
Given your background (Victoria + data mindset), here’s the practical takeaway:
- This is a developer bailout disguised as affordability policy
- It helps:
- builders → survive
- government → keep housing starts
- It does NOT:
- flood market with cheap homes
If you want, I can go one level deeper:
👉 Compare this with BC / Victoria market (very different dynamic)
👉 Or show which segment will drop vs rise (condo vs house) — this is actually where money is made.
but Ontario, especially tornton, house market is droping 11%, which means supply is more than demand, it is not like the house price is rocket high or a lot of demand, and the immigration is droping, please check more resource and adjustifiy your answer
You’re actually raising a very important correction, and you’re right on part of it 👍
👉 Ontario (especially Toronto) IS currently in a buyer’s market
👉 Prices ARE falling (~6–11% depending on metric)
👉 Demand is weaker (sales down, immigration slowing)
Let’s update the analysis properly using real data.
📊 1. You are correct: current market = weak demand + higher inventory
Recent data shows:
- GTA prices ↓ about 7–8% YoY
- Sales ↓ (buyers waiting)
- Inventory ~ 5 months supply → buyer’s market
- Continuous monthly declines reported
👉 So yes:
Right now = supply > demand → prices falling
That part of your logic is 100% correct.
🧠 2. So why I didn’t say “prices will keep dropping a lot”?
Because we need to separate 2 timelines:
🟡 Short term (NOW – 2026)
✔ You are right
✔ Prices are falling
✔ Market is weak
🔵 Medium term (2027+)
This is where your assumption needs adjustment.
⚠️ 3. The key mistake: today’s “high supply” is TEMPORARY
What you’re seeing now is NOT structural oversupply
It is a cycle effect
Why supply looks high now:
- Projects completed from 2021–2023 boom → hitting market now
- Investors selling condos
- Buyers waiting → listings accumulate
👉 Result: inventory spikes
But future supply is collapsing:
- Condo pre-sales collapsed
- Developers stopped launching projects
- Construction pipeline shrinking
👉 CMHC explicitly warns:
supply pipeline is weakening, especially in Toronto
📉 4. So what happens next (THIS is the key insight)
We get a two-phase market
Phase 1 (now – 2026)
- High inventory (from past builds)
- Weak demand (rates + uncertainty + immigration slower)
- → prices falling
✔ This matches exactly what you said
Phase 2 (2027–2029)
- New construction very low
- Population still growing (even if slower)
- Inventory gets absorbed
→ supply shortage returns
👉 That’s why CMHC says:
- Ontario prices fall in 2026
- then recover in 2027
🏗️ 5. Now bring back your original question (tax cut)
You said:
lower tax → more supply → price drop
Here is the corrected version:
👉 Without policy:
- Future supply = VERY LOW (crash)
- → big shortage later → prices spike again
👉 With policy:
- Future supply = slightly higher
- → shortage less severe
- → prices stabilize instead of spike
🧾 6. So final corrected conclusion (more precise)
You were right about today, but incomplete about future dynamics:
✔ Today (2026)
- Prices ↓
- Demand weak
- Inventory high
👉 Yes → downward pressure
✔ Future (2027+)
- Supply pipeline shrinking
- Policies try to fix that
👉 NOT creating oversupply
👉 Just reducing future shortage
🎯 7. The real professional-level takeaway
This is the key insight most people miss:
Ontario is not in a “too much housing” problem
It is in a “boom → oversupply → underbuilding → shortage” cycle
📌 Final answer to your question
“If supply > demand now, won’t more supply make prices drop?”
👉 Short answer:
- Short term → YES (you are right)
- Medium term → NO (because supply is about to fall sharply)
🧠 My honest adjusted view (after your correction)
- 2026:
👉 prices likely continue soft / slight decline - 2027+:
👉 stabilization → recovery - Biggest risk:
👉 condo market stays weak longer (oversupply + investor exit)
If you want, I can go deeper into:
👉 Why condo vs detached behaves completely differently now
👉 Where the real opportunity is (this is actually very actionable for you as realtor)
can you compare with BC/Victoria situation? and do you think there will be similar situation for BC?
Thought for 40s
Yes — there is one similar part, but not the same overall outcome.
My view after checking BC and Victoria sources is:
Ontario/Toronto and BC/Victoria are similar in the construction story, but different in the price story.
Ontario is already in a clearer resale-price correction, especially in Toronto. BC, and Victoria in particular, looks more like a balanced-to-soft market with mild price pressure, not a Toronto-style drop right now.
Here is the clean comparison.
1. Ontario/Toronto: more like “price correction first”
CMHC says Ontario is the only region expected to see price declines in 2026, mainly because of GTA weakness, high resale inventory, and muted sales. It also says Ontario starts are falling toward near two-decade lows because condo pre-sales were extremely weak.
TRREB’s February 2026 data shows GTA sales were down year over year, average price was about $1.009M, and the MLS HPI benchmark was down 7.9% YoY.
So Toronto’s pattern is:
weak demand now + lots of resale supply now + future new-build slowdown later.
2. BC overall: softer market, but not the same kind of correction
BCREA’s 2026 Q1 forecast says BC sales are expected to rise 12% in 2026, with inventory near the highest level in more than a decade, which should keep conditions balanced. BCREA still expects the BC average price to rise about 3% in 2026, though it notes this is tempered by high inventory and partly reflects composition effects.
CMHC is broadly similar on BC: it says BC prices should grow again in 2026, unlike Ontario, though it also warns there is downside risk if labour markets do not improve meaningfully.
So BC is more:
balanced market + modest rebound in activity + limited price upside, rather than Ontario’s clearer price decline.
3. Victoria: even less similar to Toronto
Victoria’s latest board data does not look like Toronto. In February 2026, active listings were up 10.4% YoY, but the benchmark price for a Victoria Core single-family home was down only 0.9% YoY, and the condo benchmark was down only 0.7% YoY. VREB described the market as moving into balance, not deep buyer’s-market distress.
CMHC’s Victoria outlook says:
- resale activity should pick up in 2026,
- high inventory should moderate price growth,
- price growth should be only slight,
- apartment construction should keep rising in 2026 before slowing later,
- rental vacancies should stay high as new supply completes.
That is much milder than Toronto.
4. The part that is similar: future underbuilding risk
This is where BC starts to resemble Ontario.
CMHC says housing starts in British Columbia are expected to drop sharply through the forecast horizon, even though BC home prices are not expected to fall like Ontario’s in 2026.
BCREA also complained that BC’s 2026 budget lacked measures to address the “looming decline in new home construction,” and highlighted housing tax increases instead.
So the “similar situation” for BC is not “Toronto-style big resale price declines now.”
It is more:
today’s softer demand and higher inventory may hide a future supply problem if starts keep weakening.
5. My adjusted conclusion
I would separate BC into two questions:
Will BC/Victoria have the same price drop as Toronto?
Probably no, not at the same scale, based on current forecasts and current Victoria data. Ontario is the province CMHC singles out for 2026 price declines; BC is not.
Will BC have a similar “future supply gets worse because builders pull back” problem?
Yes, that part is very possible, because CMHC expects BC starts to drop sharply and BCREA is already warning about weakening new-home construction.
So my plain-English answer is:
BC/Victoria is not Toronto right now.
Toronto looks like a clearer correction market.
Victoria looks more balanced, with only mild price softness.
But BC does share Ontario’s medium-term risk that weak building today can create tighter supply later.
For you as a Victoria realtor, the practical takeaway is:
- Toronto risk = near-term resale price weakness
- Victoria risk = low upside now, but not major downside unless the economy worsens
- BC medium-term risk = underbuilding, especially if starts keep fading
If you want, I can turn this into a Toronto vs Victoria table with four lines only: prices, inventory, starts, and 12–24 month outlook.
I would like to write an article on new policy in Ontario will press the price and will BC the next in Chinese
很好，这个选题非常适合做公众号，而且你这个角度（“政策压房价 + BC会不会跟进”）很有吸引力 👍
我帮你写一版可直接发布的公众号文章（偏专业+易懂+有判断）。
🏠 标题（可选）
安省新政会压低房价？BC会不会是下一个？
（备选）
- 安省出手降税，房价会跌吗？BC会跟吗？
- 多伦多房价下跌背后：新政真能“打压房价”？
📌 正文
一、安省新政：表面是“降房价”，本质是什么？
最近，联邦政府与安省宣布一项重要住房政策：
- 新建住宅最高可减免 13% HST
- 开发费用（Development Charges）有望降低
- 政府目标：降低建房成本、增加供应
很多人第一反应是：
👉 成本下降 → 供应增加 → 房价下降
听起来很合理，但现实没有这么简单。
二、现实情况：多伦多房价已经在跌
目前安省（尤其多伦多）市场，其实已经进入调整阶段：
- 房价同比下降（约 7%–10% 区间）
- 库存上升（买方市场）
- 成交量明显下降
👉 换句话说：
现在不是“房子不够”，而是“买家不敢买”
原因包括：
- 利率仍然不低
- 经济不确定性增加
- 投资者退出（尤其公寓）
- 移民增长放缓
三、那为什么政府还要“降成本”？（关键点）
这里是最容易被误解的地方 👇
👉 这项政策，不是为了让房价大跌，而是为了“救供应”
当前最大的问题其实是：
- 开发商不赚钱 → 不开新项目
- 预售崩塌（尤其公寓）
- 新开工量大幅下降
如果不干预：
👉 未来 2–3 年供应会严重不足
🔍 简单理解：
没有政策：
- 现在：房价跌
- 未来：供应断层 → 房价反弹甚至暴涨
有政策：
- 现在：房价仍然偏弱
- 未来：供应恢复一点 → 房价更稳定
四、新政真的会“压房价”吗？
👉 短期：会有一定压制作用（但有限）
原因：
- 新房成本下降 → 对市场有“心理锚”
- 部分开发商可能让利促销
- 买家观望情绪增强
👉 但现实是：
- 很多项目只是从“亏钱”变成“刚能做”
- 开发商未必会大幅降价
- 供应增加需要时间（3–5年）
👉 中长期：反而是“稳房价”而不是“压房价”
核心逻辑：
这项政策的真正作用是：
避免未来出现更严重的供不应求
五、那BC（尤其维多利亚）会不会一样？
👉 我的判断：不会完全复制安省，但方向可能类似
1️⃣ 当前BC / Victoria情况不同
和多伦多相比：
- 房价没有明显大跌
- 市场更接近“平衡”
- 供需关系更稳定
👉 简单说：
BC没有出现像多伦多那样的“明显过剩”阶段
2️⃣ 但BC有一个“更隐蔽的问题”
👉 新房开工正在下降
- 成本高（人工+材料）
- 政策压力大
- 开发利润被压缩
这和安省是一样的👇
👉 开发商开始不建房了
3️⃣ BC未来可能出现的情况
如果趋势持续：
- 2026：市场平稳或略弱
- 2027–2028：供应减少
- → 重新进入供不应求
👉 房价再次上涨压力出现
六、最关键结论（建议你作为文章核心）
👉 安省现在发生的是：
短期价格下行 + 长期供应风险
👉 政策的真正目的：
不是压房价，而是防止未来房价再次失控上涨
👉 BC（尤其维多利亚）：
现在还没进入“价格明显下跌”阶段
但已经开始出现
👉 “未来供应减少”的早期信号
🧠 最后一句（点睛，非常适合公众号）
房地产从来不是简单的“供多就跌，供少就涨”。
真正影响价格的，是供需在不同时间点的错配。
安省现在在解决的是未来的问题，
而BC，可能正在走向同一个周期。